Secondary sanctions on Russian energy could push Europe away, says RBC's Helima Croft

Supply and Demand Dynamics - Europe aims to reduce reliance on Russian gas, potentially through increased US LNG imports [2] - Secondary sanctions on Russian energy companies could further curb Russian oil and gas imports, but haven't been implemented [3] - The EU's decision to ban Russian seaborn oil imports was significant, as oil exports are a major source of revenue for Russia [4] Sanctions and Enforcement - Price caps on Russian oil, intended to allow continued flow to countries like India, may have prioritized inflation reduction over reducing Russian revenue [4][9] - Increased sanctions enforcement on Iranian oil, including secondary sanctions on countries like India and China, is possible [5][6][7] - India significantly reduced Iranian oil purchases when secondary sanctions were applied [6] - Some Iranian oil is disguised as oil from other countries, such as Malaysia [6] Policy and Geopolitics - The US was initially concerned about a 3 million barrel a day supply disruption when Europe moved to ban Russian seaborn oil imports [9] - The effectiveness of sanctions depends on consistent enforcement [7][8]