Primary trend of this bull market is higher, says Goldman's Tony Pasquariello

Market Trend & Outlook - The primary market trend is bullish [1] - Earnings have generally exceeded expectations, with the S&P 493 up 7% and the Magnificent Seven up 28% in the first half [2] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts amidst a cyclical acceleration [3] - The market's high PE ratio of 22x places it in the 96th percentile historically [7] Federal Reserve & Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates three times this year (September, October, December) and two more times next year, resulting in a funds rate of 3 and one-eighth by next June [4] - US GDP growth is projected at 13% this year (subtrend), 18% next year (trend), and 21% the year after [4][5] - The market benefits from monetary and fiscal tailwinds, along with reduced tariff uncertainty [5][6] - Historically, the stock market has risen one year forward in all 12 instances when the Fed cuts rates at or near market highs since 1990 [6] Technology Sector - Since 2009, NASDAQ has been up in 16 out of 17 years, with a cumulative return above 2200%, where 75% of it was earnings, 16% dividends, and 9% multiple [8][9] - Oracle's addition of $250 billion in market capitalization in a single day signals the strength of the AI infrastructure story [10] - Major companies are beginning to attach revenue to AI, which is expected to continue powering the market [11]