X @Ansem

Market Opportunity - A 73% gain is possible on the "NO, Eric Adams will NOT drop out by September 30th" contract on Polymarket [1] - The "NO, Eric Adams will NOT drop out by September 30th" contract is trading at 58 cents [1] - The industry views odds sub 60 cents as favorable [3] Political Analysis - Ballots are officially certified for the New York Mayoral race as of September 11th [1] - Even if Eric Adams drops out, his name will still appear on the ballot in November [1] - Eric Adams was actively campaigning as recently as September 13th [1] - The September 15th drop out deadline appears to be a confirmed NO [2] Historical Precedent - There has only been one instance where a candidate tried to remove their name from the ballot after certification, but judges ruled against it [3] - There has never been an instance where a New York mayoral candidate has dropped out after ballot certification [3]