France Rating Downgrade Is Already Priced: 3-Minute MLIV

France's Economic Outlook - Fitch's downgrade of France was anticipated due to a deficit exceeding 5% [1] - France's debt to GDP and deficit are nearly double the EU's mandated 3% levels [2] - The market reaction to the downgrade is muted, suggesting the bad news is largely priced in [3] - Fitch's stable outlook on France's A-plus debt indicates no expected change in the next year, offering reassurance to investors [4] - French bonds are expected to trade with a milder risk premium rather than rally [4] Federal Reserve (The Fed) - The market anticipates a 25 basis points rate cut by the Fed [5] - The Fed's dot plot indicating three rate cuts by the end of 2026 contrasts with market expectations of six rate cuts [5] - Markets are pricing in 35% inflation in the next year, posing a challenge for the Fed's rate-cutting policy [6] Bank of Japan (BOJ) - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates, influenced by the potential for a fiscally dovish prime minister [8] - If the BOJ delays raising rates, market volatility is anticipated, potentially impacting global bond markets [9]