CBO Director Phill Swagel: Seeing a lot of signs that the economy is weakening

Economic Projections - Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects higher inflation and unemployment this year with slowing economic growth [1] - Population growth is anticipated to be significantly lower due to immigration changes, impacting jobs numbers [2][3][4] - Labor supply is falling dramatically, with population numbers expected to be several hundred thousand fewer each year over the next 10 years, and approximately 1 million fewer this year alone [4] Impact of Policies - The reconciliation bill is boosting the economy, while slowing immigration and tariffs are having a negative impact [3] - Tariffs are raising inflation and slowing down the economy, affecting both businesses and households [3] - Tariffs put in place since January 20th are projected to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, consisting of $33 trillion in revenue and $700 billion in averted debt costs [10][11] Uncertainty and Assumptions - There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy due to changing policies and tariffs [8] - CBO follows the administration's actions day by day and assumes that current policies will continue indefinitely [9] - CBO expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by 75 basis points between now and the end of January [14] - CBO updates its forecast a few times a year, and inflation since January has been a bit higher than expected [20]