Bitcoin: Fear and Greed

Market Sentiment & Retail Participation - The Fear and Greed Index is at 52, indicating a lack of euphoria compared to previous all-time highs [2][5] - Social interest in crypto is low compared to typical post-halving years, suggesting limited new retail investor participation [3] - The Fear and Greed Index high in late November 2024 has not been surpassed despite Bitcoin's new all-time highs, further suggesting limited retail euphoria [6] Bitcoin Performance & Diminishing Returns - Bitcoin's rally from the 2024 high to the current August high is approximately 60%, significantly less than the over 500% rally in 2017 over a similar timeframe [7][8] - The analysis suggests being aware of diminishing returns, implying that future rallies may not match past percentage gains [8] - Speculation on a 300% rally from the August high to the cycle top is considered dubious, given Bitcoin's underperformance compared to previous cycles [9][10] Ethereum's Role & Altseason - A durable altseason is unlikely until Ethereum reaches durable new all-time highs [12] - The lack of Ethereum's new all-time highs may contribute to the absence of significant euphoria reflected in the Fear and Greed Index [11][13] Market Outlook - September is expected to be a dull month with limited market interest, with potential interest possibly starting in October [14]