Former NEC director Gary Cohn: There's a chance markets will be disappointed in Fed dot plot

Interest Rate Outlook - The market anticipates a rate cut, but the extent of the Federal Reserve's dovishness may lead to market disappointment [1] - There is considerable uncertainty and variability in expectations regarding future interest rate paths beyond the immediate cut [3] - Disagreement exists regarding the relative importance of inflation and unemployment, the two factors the Fed considers [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The market is urging the Fed to prioritize unemployment concerns and continue cutting rates [5] - Approximately 80,000 people in the US turn 65 every week, impacting the workforce denominator [6] - Companies have shifted from hoarding employees during COVID to minimizing labor costs due to rising input costs [8][9][10] - Companies are not fully passing increased costs to consumers, leading to labor cost reductions [10] - Natural attrition is occurring in the labor market due to retirements, even with companies not actively hiring [12][13] Inflationary Pressures - There are inflationary trends in the system, but companies are currently absorbing many costs [13] - Tariffs can create a multi-time inflationary effect if their costs are gradually integrated into prices over time [15]