Bitcoin: Bull Market Support Band

Market Trend Analysis - Bitcoin historically sets a high in August or early September, followed by a low in September, setting up a rally into a market cycle top in Q4 [1] - The pattern observed in 2020, involving a low in Q1, sideways movement, a rally, and a pullback to the bull market support band, mirrors the current market behavior [7][8] - Altcoin liquidity is expected to flow back to Bitcoin in late September and early October [31] Technical Indicators and Key Levels - Bitcoin's cycle is considered intact as long as it maintains weekly closes above the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near 99,000, potentially reaching 100,000 soon [13][23] - A weekly close below the 50-week SMA would signal a potential end to the cycle [13][14] - The 20-week SMA serves as a bull market support band, and holding it through October would be the best-case scenario [26] Historical Patterns and Predictions - The number 124 (or multiples thereof, like 1244, 12400, 124K) has historically acted as a local top for Bitcoin [15][16] - The current cycle is showing similarities to the 2016-2017 cycle, based on the number of days since Bitcoin had a 50% drop [22] - Ethereum is expected to pull back to the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) after sweeping the prior all-time high [27][28] Macroeconomic Factors - A 50 basis point rate cut last year resulted in a 26% rally for Bitcoin, while this time, a 25 basis point rate cut only led to a 10% rally [3] - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates and the economy is not imploding, the 10-year yield is likely to increase [5]