X @Raoul Pal

Market Dynamics & Investment Flows - ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) and BTC TCs (Bitcoin Trust Companies) have been key drivers in the current market cycle, but the structural demand from TCs is decreasing due to mNAV (market Net Asset Value) compression [1] - ETF flows are now a more significant factor in the market, while spot sovereign accumulation represents an unpredictable element [1] - After a weak start to September, ETFs turned bullish, aligning with previous tops and bottoms since their launch [1] Liquidity & Momentum - A 25% correction was anticipated following buying from the two cohorts at the new all-time high, which is normal for Bitcoin's volatility [2] - Liquidity remains supportive, but momentum is lacking, causing frustration for those seeking parabolic growth [2] - Global liquidity is growing slower than debt, but a cycle peak is not expected [2] - Bitcoin's gradual increase mirrors the slow growth in global liquidity [3] Future Outlook & Potential Risks - A dull cycle could lead to a shallow bear market drawdown but a prolonged decline [3] - Central banks reversing balance sheet tightening could trigger another upward movement, particularly in alternative cryptocurrencies (Alts), potentially leading to a peak and a deeper fall of potentially 50% [3] - Blockchain adoption and monetary debasement are considered strong secular trends [4] - Bitcoin is becoming global collateral, benefiting from AI technology, driving energy grid stabilization, and serving as an anchor asset for global portfolios [4]