Fed’s Miran says economic vulnerability calls for rapid cuts #shorts #fed #miran #federalreserve

Monetary Policy Stance - The speaker believes the neutral rate is in the mid-2% range and advocates for a swift adjustment to this level [1] - Policy is becoming tighter daily as fiscal and border policies take effect [5] - The speaker does not foresee an imminent economic collapse or labor market crash [5] Factors Influencing Neutral Rate - Fiscal policy is driving up net national borrowing and decreasing net national savings [3] - Immigration policy has caused a significant shift from positive to negative population growth [3] - These shifts in national savings and population growth have implications for the economy's fundamental structure and the neutral rate [3] Risks of Overly Restrictive Policy - Maintaining an excessively restrictive policy for too long poses downside risks to the economy [6] - Prolonged restrictive policy could lead to a meaningful increase in the unemployment rate and failure to meet the employment mandate [6] - The speaker argues that policy was not as tight as perceived last year, but is now tighter than believed due to the declining neutral rate [4]