Bond Markets React to Fed Cut | Presented by CME Group

Interest Rate Trends - In the fall of 2024, the Federal Reserve lowered the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points [1] - Contrary to expectations, the 10-year Treasury yield increased from 36% to 47% during the same period [2] - As of September 17th, the Fed has restarted its rate cutting cycle [3] - Before the cut, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 405%, and it slightly increased to 413% over the next 5 days [4] Inflation and Market Reaction - Analysts suggested the initial rate cuts were premature due to persistent inflation [2] - Headline inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [2] - The modest increase in yield after the recent rate cut may indicate a market rotation into equities [4] - The bond market's inflation perception could change based on upcoming PCE and CPI data [5] Economic Concerns - Rising yields may be due to inflation concerns or the increasing amount of debt needing to be rolled over [5] - Reduced demand from China could impact the US [5]