Raoul Pal: The ACTUAL Reason Bitcoin & Crypto Are Crashing!

Market Analysis and Bitcoin Cycle - Bitcoin continues to trade within a range, with the lower end of the support range presenting buying opportunities [1] - The traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, driven by the halving, may now be a five-year cycle, potentially peaking in Q2 2026 [2] - The Bitcoin cycle is correlated with the ISM (Institute for Supply Management) business cycle, a key indicator of US economic activity [3][4][5] - The current elongated business cycle, unlike previous cycles, is attributed to the extension of debt maturity from four to five years in 2021-2022 [8][9] - The average weighted maturity of the debt is 5.4 years, suggesting the ISM should peak by 2026 [10] - Despite the ISM remaining below 50, indicating economic contraction, any dips in Bitcoin price are considered buying opportunities, similar to patterns observed in 2015-16 and 2019-20 [11][12] Altcoin and AI Investment Opportunities - A new BitTensor fund has been launched, focusing on TOAO and BitTensor subnet alpha tokens, highlighting the potential of AI-related altcoins [12][13] - BitTensor subnets are providing AI models and companion apps at significantly reduced costs compared to traditional services like AWS [14] - SUI is positioned to dominate agentic commerce, particularly in AI-driven transactions, and has partnered with Google on AP2, an agentic payments framework [16][17] Swissborg (Borg) Token Buyback Program - Swissborg is using 50% of trading fees to buy back the Borg token, creating buy pressure [20][21] - Based on the previous week's stats, this equates to $400,000 weekly, $1.6 million monthly, and $20 million annually in buy pressure [21] - The buyback program could potentially pump Borg by 50% in a single week, given current liquidity and price impact [22]