Mark Zandi: From a market perspective, government shutdown is 'no big deal'

Economic Impact of Potential Shutdown - A short government shutdown (one to two weeks) is unlikely to have a significant macroeconomic or market impact [1] - A data blackout caused by a shutdown would be particularly problematic given the current inflection point in the labor market and the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision [3] - If the shutdown lasts longer than two weeks, it could become a real problem and investors will likely take notice [4] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is currently weak, with little to no job growth in recent months [3][4] - Businesses have pulled back on hiring, reduced hours, and cut back on temporary jobs, but layoffs remain low [5] - The expectation is for a flat job market, and revisions may show a net loss of jobs [6] Consumer Spending and GDP - Second quarter GDP growth was 380% (原文应为3.8%，此处为笔误) and August personal spending was 6%, both better than expected [7] - Strong consumer spending is attributed to the wealth effect from the stock market, primarily benefiting high-income households [8] - The saving rate has declined, indicating that high-income consumers are spending more aggressively [9] Economic Vulnerabilities - The economy is vulnerable because almost half of all spending is done by the top 10% of the income distribution (making over approximately $275,000-$300,000 per year) [12][13] - If the stock market declines and people start seeing losses, the saving rate could increase, potentially leading to a recession given the lack of job growth [15] - Disturbing data on average FICO scores and collapses in auto subprime financing indicate potential pain for the lower income cohort [11]