Jobs report will be most important market event next week, says Vital Knowledge's Adam Crisafulli

Economic Indicators & Monetary Policy - The ISM reports will provide an early look at September, unaffected by the shutdown [1] - Investors are seeking alternative information sources like ADP due to uncertainty around government statistics; ADP's private employment survey is critical [3][4] - A strong jobs report could negatively impact the market by increasing yields and altering Fed expectations; the Fed might skip or delay rate cuts [11][12] - Hot JOLTS number and jobs number could lead the Fed to skip October or cut in October and suggest no move in December [11] Trade & Tariffs - The White House is using Section 232 investigations and tariffs to solidify its trade agenda amid scrutiny [5] - Potential Supreme Court action against AIPA tariffs could shift focus to Section 232 tariffs, creating uncertainty for corporate America [6] - If AIPA tariffs are struck down and refunds are issued, upward pressure on treasury yields could impact stocks [7] Geopolitics & Commodities - Geopolitics, particularly President Trump's stance on Russia and Ukraine, are influencing energy markets [8] - A shift in tone from President Trump towards Russia and the war in Ukraine has impacted oil prices [8] - Potential for longer-range missiles to Ukraine creates upside risk for oil; copper news also impacts commodity prices and inflation [9] Earnings Reports - Carnival's earnings report on Monday and Nike's on Tuesday are important events [2]