Mexico’s Nearshoring Boom Faces Trade Risks

Nearshoring and Trade Dynamics - Companies are relocating production from China to Mexico, driven by factors like the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its successor, USMCA [2][3] - Chinese companies are establishing plants in Mexico to compete, forcing existing companies to improve competitiveness [3][4] - The USMCA agreement is up for review in 2026, with China's role in North American supply chains being a key issue [9][10] - Tariffs on Mexican exports could lead to higher prices for US consumers due to the integrated nature of the economies [12] Investment Climate and Risks - Investors are concerned about issues like judicial reform and security in Mexico, which are creating uncertainty [5][6][7] - Homicide rates remain high, and extortion and kidnappings have increased, contributing to investor uncertainty [6][7] - Investment in Mexico has been frozen due to uncertainty, despite the search for alternatives to Asia [8] - Mexico aims to increase its share of North American imports to approximately 25% through integration with the US, contingent on attracting private capital [17] Automotive Industry and Tariffs - Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto imports, particularly those imposed by the US, are disrupting the automotive supply chain [18][19][20] - Parts can cross the border multiple times during the manufacturing process, making the industry vulnerable to tariffs [20] - Canada imports more vehicles from Mexico than from the US for the first time in 30 years [24] - The industry advocates for tariff-free movement of vehicles and parts within North America to ensure competitiveness and lower consumer costs [29][30] - Stronger North American content rules and penalties for non-compliance are needed, along with measures to encourage OEMs in Europe, Japan, and Korea to manufacture more vehicles in North America [26][27] - The industry suggests keeping China out of the North American automotive market due to concerns about unfair competition [28]