Uranium EXPLAINED: Why It Could Soon Run Out!

Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global uranium demand is projected to increase by 30% from 67,000 tons to 87,000 tons by 2030, and further to over 150,000 tons annually by 2040 [35] - Current uranium mines are expected to start depleting after 2030, leading to a potential supply shortfall for import-dependent countries [35][36] - The United States imports 95% of its uranium, requiring 18,000 tons annually while producing only 100 tons domestically [20] - China's uranium demand is forecasted to quadruple to 40,000 tons annually by 2035, while domestic production is only 1,700 tons [21] Geopolitical and Market Concentration - Kazakhstan produces 43% of the world's uranium, and together with Canada (15%) and Namibia (11%), controls nearly 70% of global production [18][19] - Russia's Rosatom controls 38% of global uranium enrichment capacity, posing a geopolitical risk for Western nations [7][43] - The top 10 uranium producers control 85% of global supply, and four entities (Rosatom, Uranko, Orano, and CNNC) control 96% of global enrichment capacity [32] Challenges and Bottlenecks - Uranium enrichment is a critical bottleneck, with Russia and China controlling nearly two-thirds (62.7%) of global capacity [7][44] - The uranium cycle takes 12 to 18 months from mine to reactor, and disruptions can cascade through the system [17] - Lead times for new uranium projects range from 10 to 20 years, encompassing exploration, feasibility studies, permitting, and construction [37] Historical Context and Strategic Implications - The US privatized its enrichment infrastructure in the 1990s, leading to a decline in domestic capacity and increased reliance on imports [45][46][47][48] - China has systematically secured uranium supply through equity stakes in mines across Africa and Central Asia, ensuring resource security [22]