“The first risk” of a government shutdown down for future Fed rate cuts.

Labor Market Data Concerns - Potential delays in the release of jobs data following a shutdown could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding the economy [1] - Over-reliance on a single report like the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is discouraged; the industry should consider private sector reports like ADP for a broader view of the labor market [2] - The threat of permanent firings, as opposed to temporary furloughs, could further weaken the labor market [2] - The H-1B visa issue adds another layer of complexity and potential disruption to labor market data [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The initial inclination is to proceed with the planned rate cut for October [3] - The possibility of a December rate cut is uncertain, depending on the resilience of economic growth and stickiness of inflation based on the latest data [4]