Treyz: Nothing happens until the very last minute in Washington

Government Shutdown Probability & Duration - The analyst estimates a 70% probability of a government shutdown, lower than the 90% perceived by Hill staff [1][2] - The duration of the shutdown is the key question, impacting the market and economic data releases [4] - The analyst anticipates a short-lived shutdown [8] Political Dynamics & Key Players - The meeting with the president is considered unproductive due to too many participants; focus should be on Leader Thun and Leader Schumer [4] - Senator Thun is crucial for Senate negotiations, needing 10-20 Democratic votes to pass a resolution [6][7] - Leader Johnson has the votes to pass a short-term continuing resolution in the House [6] Impact on Economic Data & Market Reaction - The release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment data on Friday is critical for investors [8] - The White House has the functional ability to release the BLS data, making it a political choice [12] - Concerns exist regarding data publication integrity, given the BLS commissioner's dismissal and perceived executive influence [14] - The bond market is heavily focused on the jobs data for insights into interest rates [15]