How the Economic Machine Works - Part 4

Deleveraging Dynamics - During deleveraging, spending decreases, incomes decline, credit vanishes, asset prices fall, banks face pressure, and stock markets crash, creating a self-reinforcing negative cycle [1] - Borrowers struggle as incomes decrease and debt repayments increase, leading to asset sales and market flooding, causing stock market and real estate market crashes, and bank troubles [2] - Lowering interest rates is ineffective in deleveraging because rates are already near 0%, unlike in a recession where it stimulates borrowing [3][4] Debt Burden and Reduction - The core issue in deleveraging is excessively high debt burdens that cannot be alleviated by lowering interest rates [5] - Four methods to address deleveraging include: cutting spending (austerity), debt reduction through defaults and restructurings, wealth redistribution, and central bank money printing [6] - Cutting spending leads to falling incomes, worsening the debt burden as incomes fall faster than debts are repaid [7][8] Consequences of Default and Restructuring - Borrowers' inability to repay loans impacts lenders' assets, causing bank runs and defaults, leading to a depression [9] - Debt restructuring, where lenders receive less or are paid over a longer period or at a lower interest rate, reduces debt but can cause income and asset values to disappear faster [11][12]