BMO's Brian Belski: The Fed has to bring some credibility back with the market

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its view of global equities due to strong earnings and a Fed easing cycle [1] - The market rally has been led by fundamentals and earnings recovery [4] - BIMO initially published a bull case target of 7,000 in November 2024 [5] - BIMO anticipates another 8% to 10% earnings growth into next year [6] - The average return is like 56% when a market is up 15% to 20% in the first nine months of the year, going back to 1950 [10] Investment Strategy - BIMO raised its target back to 7,000 as a bull case, seeing more reward than risk in buying stocks at record highs [7] - BIMO believes that 7,000 by year-end could be too low and the market could go higher [8] - The yield curve is expected to continue to steepen, benefiting financials and driving earnings growth [14] - BIMO expects stocks to potentially rise by high single digits to low double digits, near the historical average of 10% to 12%, especially with dividends [16] Economic Factors - Goldilocks is defined as steady interest rates, positive earnings growth, and positive GDP growth [11] - The Fed needs to build credibility, especially considering tensions with the White House and inflation [22] - BIMO anticipates at least two more rate cuts before the end of the year [23]