What Happens to Jobs Data If The Government Shuts Down?

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - Each week of a government shutdown shaves off approximately 025 percentage points from the annualized GDP growth rate during that quarter [4] - A three-week shutdown, the longest seen, could potentially be absorbed within the fourth quarter, resulting in a negligible overall impact [5][6] - A prolonged shutdown could lead to a 1 percentage point reduction in fourth-quarter GDP growth [4] Labor Market Data and Analysis - A government shutdown would suspend data releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and cease active data collection [1] - The absence of federal data increases the importance of alternative datasets like ADP data for labor market insights [2] - The Department of Labor could reduce its workforce from approximately 13000 to 3000 employees during a shutdown, with only one employee remaining at the Bureau of Labor Statistics [10] - Data collection during the reference week (containing the 12th of the month) could be significantly impacted, potentially leading to choppy labor surveys and data revisions [11][13] - Mass firings could increase the unemployment rate up to 45% [11] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - A government shutdown could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions due to the lack of official statistics [7] - The Fed relies on data like the core PCE measure and the unemployment rate for communication and policy decisions, which would be unavailable during a shutdown [8]