Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout

Employment Data Analysis - ADP private payroll data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly lower than the estimated increase of 45,000 [1] - The August data was revised down by 57,000 from an increase of 54,000 to a decrease of 3,000, reflecting a new growth rate in the job market [2] - Small businesses experienced a decrease of 40,000 jobs, medium businesses decreased by 20,000 jobs, while large businesses increased by 33,000 jobs [3] - Leisure and hospitality sector saw a decline of 19,000 jobs [3] - Job stayers experienced a wage increase of 45%, while job changers saw an increase of 66%, down from 71% in August [3][4] Economic Indicators and Trends - The report indicates a slowdown in hiring momentum compared to the beginning of the year [8] - Initial jobless claims remain low, suggesting a low-fire jobs market [10] - Strong GDP growth in the second quarter, driven by consumer spending, raises questions about its sustainability for labor market growth [10][11][12] - Ten-year Treasury yield experienced a slight decrease, reaching 416%, then 410%, a drop of six basis points [13] Data and Methodology - ADP rebenchmarks its data annually to align with the BLS data, which serves as a near census of US workers covered by employment insurance [6][7] - The BLS relies on survey data from the CES survey, while ADP uses an independent measure [18] - The Fed is known to access ADP data with more granularity [15][16] Government Shutdown Impact - A government shutdown would not directly affect ADP's next report, as it does not rely on survey data [17] - Potential layoffs in the government sector could impact private sector employment, particularly among contractors [26]