How the U.S. government shutdown impacts economic data

Labor Market Analysis - Government payroll data remains vital for understanding the jobs market and the economy, despite ADP's volatility [1] - ADP data aligns well with the Bureau of Labor Statistics private sector data over a year, with a year-to-date difference of only 9,000 jobs per month in August [2] - Alternative data may not accurately reflect changes if jobs are at an inflection point [3] - Jobless claims provide data on firings, but not hiring [3] Key Indicators - Continuing claims plus the Conference Board's employment data on jobs hard to get serve as a good proxy for the unemployment rate [4] - Hiring intentions in the small business NFIB survey are considered the best single indicator of payrolls for the month ahead, showing signs of stability after weakening earlier in the summer [5] Government Sector Impact - Trump administration layoffs of federal workers are expected to impact job data this month and next, with no private sector data replacement [6] - ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs for September, partly due to revisions [6] - Revisions suggest a softer job market than previously believed [6]