Why gold prices could hit $5,000 within the next year

Gold Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] - State Street Investment Management assigns a 75% probability of gold breaking above $4,000 per ounce, possibly this month or in Q4 [2] - The industry anticipates gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in the next 6 to 12 months, rather than falling to $3,000 [3] Factors Driving Gold Prices - A weaker US dollar, strong physical demand from China and central banks, and record ETF inflows in September, with over $10 billion in US-listed gold ETF inflows, have supported the gold market [5][6] - Gold benefits from an uncertainty premium due to risks emanating from Washington DC, inflation uncertainty, and Federal Reserve policy [7] Investment Strategies - ETFs, particularly GLD and GLDM from State Street's Spider ETF suite, offer low transaction costs, high liquidity, and transparency for gold exposure [9] - Gold mining stocks, while outperforming gold year-to-date, are tied to company management, cash flows, and capex costs, making them less suitable for pure gold exposure [10][11] Precious Metals Market - Silver has outperformed gold since mid-2025 due to tactical reasons, and could test $50 per ounce if gold surpasses $4,000 [13] - Gold is considered a safe haven hedge due to geopolitical and policy uncertainty, while silver remains tied to industrial activity [14][15]