How a Political Feud Could Tip Asia’s Power Balance

Geopolitical Landscape & US-China Rivalry - The Philippines is strategically important due to its location near Taiwan and the South China Sea, making it a key US ally in Asia [2][7] - The Philippines is caught in the middle of the US-China power struggle, with its foreign policy direction having global consequences [4][6] - China's territorial claims in the South China Sea, represented by the "10-dash line," are disputed by the Philippines and an UN court ruling [21] - The US has access to nine locations in the Philippines to rotate troops, some near Taiwan and the South China Sea, indicating a long-term presence [18] Political Dynamics & Internal Conflicts - The political feud between President Marcos Jr and Vice President Sara Duterte is impacting the country's foreign policy [1][5][8] - Sara Duterte has expressed a desire for closer ties with China and a more neutral stance between the US and China [3][6][18][19] - Tensions escalated when Marcos' government acted on an ICC arrest warrant against Duterte's father, former President Rodrigo Duterte [15] - The alliance between the Marcos and Duterte families, known as the "Uniteam," has fractured due to disagreements over policy and positions [11][12] Economic & Trade Implications - The Philippines' post-pandemic economy has grown steadily, outpacing many regional peers [7] - The Philippines is a target of US trade anger and tariff wars, with exports to the US facing a 19% tariff [24] - The Trump administration's economic pressure on allies could push the Philippines towards China [28] - Marcos Sr and his wife are accused of stealing $10 billion USD from the state during his term [9]