The Labor Market and Bitcoin

Labor Market Analysis - The US government shutdown has resulted in the BLS not releasing labor market data, including the unemployment rate which was expected to be around 43% [1][2] - The Chicago Fed estimates the unemployment rate for September to be 434%, slightly higher than the previous month's 432%, indicating a potential softening in the labor market [2][3][4] - Job openings saw a slight increase from 721 million to 723 million, remaining relatively steady over the past year [7] - Job quits have dropped back down to cycle lows of 19%, suggesting people are less willing to leave their jobs due to fear of not finding new employment [9] - Layoffs remain relatively low, at pre-pandemic levels, which may be contributing to the continued rise of risk assets [10] - Initial claims data was not released this week, but the previous spike to 264000 has since receded [11] - Job postings on Indeed continue to slowly decline [14] - Non-farm private payroll employment from ADP shows negative revisions, with the last month revised to -3000 and this past month at -32000, indicating a potential slowdown [20] - Construction employment is slowing down, with the year-over-year change starting to decrease, though not yet negative [26] Bitcoin Market Analysis - Bitcoin's current market cycle shows similarities to post-election years like 2013, 2017, and 2021, with a high in August, a low in late September/early October, and a potential rally into a market cycle top [30][31] - The current cycle also resembles 2020, with a Q1/Q2 capitulation low, sideways movement before the 21-week EMA catches up, and a potential Q4 rally [33] - The 50-week moving average is now at $100000, and a weekly close below this level could signal the end of the cycle [35][36]