Schlosstein Doesn't Expect Shutdown to Cause Recession

Government Shutdown Impact - Current government shutdown differs from past ones due to lack of communication between parties, potentially leading to a longer duration [2] - The President's potential use of the shutdown to shrink government size could have a greater impact on GDP than usual [3] - October 15th military payday is a key date to watch, as both parties will want to avoid blame for troops not being paid [4] - Risk of recession caused by the shutdown is minor due to its typically short duration and eventual backpay [5] Credit Rating and Fiscal Governance - Shutdowns and political dysfunction signal concerns to global investors regarding U S fiscal governance [6] - Rating agencies view government dysfunction as a factor impacting the ability to utilize U S resources to maintain ratings [7][8] - The U S is currently on an unsustainable fiscal path, with an inevitable and potentially "ugly" adjustment [9]