Ethereum: Dubious Speculation

Market Analysis and Ethereum's Performance - Ethereum has been trading around $4,500 since early August [2] - Ethereum is expected to experience continued chop in the short term until the bull market support band catches up, potentially forcing a decision within the next two months [7][8] - The market suggests that Ethereum's breakout may not immediately follow Bitcoin's, with a possible lagged effect, similar to the 2017 cycle [9][10][21] - Ethereum is struggling to break through long-term resistance but finds support around $4,000, indicating a potential consolidation phase [6][22] Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Market - Bitcoin dominance formed a low in early September and has been increasing, rising from 57% to approximately 59% in about a month [27][28] - The market suggests that rising Bitcoin dominance is generally a positive sign for Bitcoin's bull run, despite short-term pullbacks and altcoin shilling [32][33] - Bitcoin dominance needs to continue to rise for Bitcoin to continue the bull run [30] Potential Catalysts and Future Outlook - The market anticipates Ethereum to break through to all-time highs after a period of consolidation, potentially leading to a market cycle top before a 2026 bear market [41] - Potential catalysts for Ethereum's movement include the end of a government shutdown or a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in late October, which could create a final low before a rally [36][38][39] - The market draws parallels between the current cycle and the 2016-2017 cycle, noting similarities in Bitcoin's performance and potential delays in Ethereum's breakout [11][12][14][17]