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Kornacki: Democrats may be facing headwinds going into 2026 midterms
NBC Newsยท2025-10-07 22:00

Midterm Elections Outlook - Democrats are aiming to regain control of Congress in the upcoming midterms, but face significant political challenges [1] - Republicans currently hold 220 seats, while Democrats have 215, meaning Democrats need a net gain of only three seats to take the House [2] - Republican efforts to redraw maps in several states could create a larger advantage for them [2] Historical Comparison - In Trump's first midterm, Democrats gained 40 seats, a "blue wave," but the signs were visible far in advance [3] - In October 2017, Democrats led the generic ballot by nearly eight points, a level maintained throughout 2018 [4] - Currently, Democrats lead the generic ballot by only three points, indicating less certainty compared to 2018 [5] Party Favorability - In October 2017, Republicans had a 27% average favorable score, while Democrats had 39% [6] - Currently, Republicans have a 41% favorable score, while Democrats have 35% [7] - Democrats are currently less popular than Republicans, which could impact their ability to capitalize on anti-White House sentiment in the midterms [8]