Gold prices could reach $4,400 in the first half of 2026, says TD Securities' Bart Melek

Market Trends & Predictions - Gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time [1] - TD Securities predicts a potential rise to $4,400 in the first half of next year, with a trading peak possibly a few hundred dollars higher [3] - A correction might see a consolidation to around $3,600-$3,700, but continued deficits and central bank buying could push prices above $4,400 [7] Driving Factors - Multiple factors are driving the price, including momentum, concerns about government spending, and fears related to government debt [3] - The US government shutdown and potential economic suffering could trigger more aggressive Federal Reserve easing, lowering the carry for gold [4] - Inflation concerns, with potential for inflation to move significantly above the 2% target, are also driving interest in gold as a hedge [5] Potential Risks & Overbought Signs - Technically, resistance is building around $4,150, with RSIs printing 90, indicating overbought conditions [6] - A benign government settlement that alleviates risks and reduces the Fed's economic worries could cause a correction in gold prices [8] Investment Strategy - Ray Dalio suggests allocating 15% of portfolios to gold due to the current economic environment resembling the 1970s, characterized by inflation, heavy government spending, and high debt [1]