X @Ansem

Market Outlook - The market is currently in a bubble, with a parabolic leg approaching, and Q4 will offer a preview of more significant activity expected next year [1] - This bubble is driven by narratives of debasement and AI, operating on fear rather than hope, pushing investors to buy gold/BTC and gain AI exposure [2] - The narratives haven't fully permeated society, but are expected to [2] - The economy is sustained by AI capital expenditure, showing resilience despite tariff headwinds, but with a two-speed dynamic where high-end and asset owners are outperforming [8] - A strong Q4 for BTC is anticipated, followed by a downturn due to the 4-year cycle debate, and then a rebound [9] Potential Catalysts - A Trump-led Fed hijacking is expected, involving rate cuts and yield curve control, potentially starting in May of next year [4] - A shift in USG debt issuance towards treasury bills is expected to lower long-dated bond yields, stimulating the economy [5] - Unlocking GSEs to increase leverage and buy mortgage bonds is expected to lower mortgage spreads and stimulate the economy [6] - Stimulus checks are expected to be airdropped to US citizens, potentially as part of a budget reconciliation bill, to boost the economy before the midterms [7] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to remain long over the next 12 months, strategically adjusting portfolio composition between gold, BTC, and stocks [9]