X @Nick Szabo

Real Estate Market Analysis - Interest rates decreased for 40 years (1980-2020), lowering cap rates and increasing real estate prices [1] - Immigration increased to offset cap rate driven increase in home prices [1] - Immigration is unlikely to continue, and interest rates are in a multi-decade uptrend [1] - The US has unsustainable debt and deficits, potentially weakening the dollar and US government debt [1] - Higher interest rates are needed to attract buyers for increasing US Treasuries supply [1] - Rising long-term rates increase cap rates, mathematically decreasing real estate prices [1] - Young people cannot afford homes, requiring a significant increase in housing supply to address affordability [1] Investment Implications - Demand for housing is decreasing, while supply is increasing, reversing previous market dynamics [1] - The tailwind from interest rates has become a headwind for real estate investment [1] - Factors that previously made real estate a good investment have reversed [1] - Owning a home may be an emotional decision but a poor financial one [1]