Real Yield 10/10/2025

Market Trends & Economic Uncertainty - The U S government shutdown is entering its 10th day, impacting the availability of official economic data and creating uncertainty in the market [1][2][13] - Tariff concerns and trade risks, particularly related to China, are rattling markets and amending investors of trade risks [1][5][15] - There's a debate on whether the labor market slowdown will drag the economy south versus the fear of inflation reigniting due to tariffs [10] - Investors are showing a "debasement trade," with increased interest in gold, silver, and Bitcoin as ways to de-dollarize or de-risk portfolios [5][6][21] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Federal Reserve's (The Fed) actions are under scrutiny, with divided opinions on whether they will cut rates as much as the market anticipates [3][4] - Inflation remains a key concern, with the Fed needing to stay focused on price stability even with early signs of cooling in hiring [3][16] - Tariff policies are contributing to inflation, with core goods starting to contribute positively again after 15 years of being a drag [17] - The market anticipates two more rate cuts for the year, but the December cut is uncertain depending on incoming data [14] Credit Market Dynamics - The high-yield market is experiencing a slowdown in sales, with junk bonds heading for their biggest weekly decline in more than four months [27] - The First Brands situation is emblematic of excessive risk-taking and the consequences of chasing yield in the credit markets [28][36][37] - Private credit is seen as a potential solution during periods of market volatility, providing funding access when public markets tighten [36][40] - Some believe investment-grade spreads could go negative over U S Treasuries, indicating that AAA companies are seen as safer investments [45]