Can Prediction Markets Replace Polls in Politics?

Prediction Market Overview - The business of making markets and futures contracts tied to events is rapidly growing [1] - Prediction markets aim to allow individuals to trade on events they care about [2] - Prediction markets provide a consensus opinion by requiring participants to back their views with money [5] - Prediction markets help people become more informed about potential outcomes in politics and foreign policy [7] Key Players - Kalshi, a regulated events contract exchange, is raising funds at a $5 billion valuation [2] - Intercontinental Exchange is seeking to acquire Kalshi's rival, Polymarket, for nearly $10 billion [2] - Polymarket is one of the largest prediction markets [4] Comparison with Polling - Prediction markets do not replace polls, similar to how the stock market reflects but doesn't replace earnings forecasts [10] - Prediction markets are heavily dependent on polling data [23] - Prediction markets serve as another analyst, crowdsourcing and combining data in a way individual analysts cannot [24] Challenges and Changes in Polling - Traditional polling faces challenges in obtaining representative samples due to technology changes [15] - Defining likely voters remains a struggle for pollsters [17] - Artificial intelligence is reshaping polling by addressing language differences and enabling respondents to answer in their own words [20][21]