Labor Market Analysis - The labor market's weakness is attributed to weaker labor supply, not weaker labor demand [1] - Three factors contribute to slow job growth: lower immigration, AI implementation, and fewer government jobs [1] - The analysis suggests continued weakness in the labor market in the near term [2] Monetary Policy Implications - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) will continue to lower the cost of capital [2] - Lower interest rates are expected to drive asset prices higher [2] - Investors and corporations may increase risk-taking due to cheaper capital, potentially investing more in R&D [3] Economic Outlook - A weaker labor market could lead to higher asset prices, contrasting historical trends where weaker labor markets typically precede recessions and lower asset prices [3] - The current weak labor market is attributed to increased company productivity and efficiency, and a less bureaucratic government [4] - The analysis anticipates a future of weak labor markets alongside all-time high asset prices [4]
The New Weird Relationship Between The Job and Stock Market
From The Desk Of Anthony Pompliano·2025-10-11 22:15