X @Arthur Hayes
Arthur Hayes·2025-10-13 03:12

Market Analysis of USDe - The analysis indicates that USDe did not depeg during the market volatility, despite claims circulating [1] - The primary venue for USDe, Curve, maintained a tight peg throughout the episode [5] - The incident exposed lessons for the industry regarding market infrastructure [7] Binance-Specific Issues - Binance experienced a flash crash specific to its platform, which could have been prevented with better market structure [5] - Binance's instability during the liquidation event hindered market makers' ability to arbitrage due to API failures and withdrawal/deposit issues [2] - Binance lacked a primary dealer relationship with Ethena, preventing direct minting and redemption on the platform [3] - Binance's poorly implemented oracle and aggressive liquidation mechanisms exacerbated the price decline of USDe [4] - Binance is refunding users liquidated on USDe due to its flawed price assessment, unlike other exchanges [4] Comparison with True Depeg Events - Unlike the USDC depeg in 2023, USDe remained fully collateralized and worth $1 on its primary venue [5][7] - The USDC depeg involved price declines across all venues and halted redemptions, representing a true depeg event [5] Liquidity and Venue Analysis - Curve holds the most liquid venue for USDe, with hundreds of millions of dollars in standing liquidity [2] - Other exchanges, including Binance, have only tens of millions of dollars in liquidity for USDe [2] - USDe experienced varying price fluctuations across different centralized exchanges (CEXs), with Binance showing the most significant depeg [2]