Expect one more move higher in the S&P into year-end, says Strategas' Chris Verrone

Market Sentiment and Underlying Conditions - The market experienced a wakeup call, appearing tired beneath the surface for 3-4 weeks prior to Friday's action [1][2] - Market's interpretation suggests conditions are generally in good shape, with cyclical stocks outperforming defensive stocks and benign credit conditions [3][7][8] - The market sold off due to concerns about escalating trade war with China, specifically potential 100% tariffs [6] Key Levels and Future Outlook - 6,400-6,450 is identified as a good support level, with expectations of one more move higher into year-end [4] - Strategus Research Partners is targeting 7,000 for year-end, but anticipates a potentially more defensive tone taking shape in 2026 [5] - Monitoring the 385 basis points level on 10-year Treasury yields as a potential signal of economic weakening [9] Macroeconomic Factors and Policy Impact - Lower oil prices (at $59 and change) and lower rates should act as stimulus, particularly for consumer stocks in the first quarter of 2026 [10][11] - Deregulatory push across industries, including banks and energy, is a significant factor [12] - Financials have been leaders for 2 years; a shift in the broader story would likely involve a weakening of financials [13] Sector Performance and Leadership - Healthcare is starting to inflect, raising questions about whether this will spread to other defensive sectors like staples and REITs [5] - Weakness is observed in private capital stocks (e.g., Apollo, Owl), while money center banks may gain market share due to deregulation [13][14]