Matus: We have no choice but to see what banks are seeing in consumers

Earnings and Market Trends - Bank earnings are increasingly important due to the lack of economic data such as PPI, CPI, and jobs report [1] - Investors are expected to rely more on bank CEOs' commentary regarding consumer trends and market conditions [2] - Earnings estimates for calendar year 2026 show a 14% growth [3] - The market is considered to be priced to perfection, raising concerns about the departure from economic growth estimates and earnings growth [4] AI Impact and Investment - The expectation of strong earnings growth is contrasted with nominal GDP estimates, suggesting potential overestimation of firm performance [5] - AI is seen as a driver of earnings growth, particularly in communication services, technology, and financials [6] - There's skepticism about the near-term benefits of AI, as the investment phase precedes significant productivity gains [7][8] - Investors should be cautious about AI deals, considering the potential for revenue acceleration to meet deal obligations [11] Economic and Geopolitical Factors - Investors should be more cautious about new technology buildouts, considering the possibility of building in the wrong direction [13] - Commodity rallies, including gold hitting new records, reflect concerns about Fed credibility and a preference for real assets over financial assets [14][15] - International relations, particularly with China, are a factor influencing market dynamics [15]