We're going to be relying on Chinese rare earth minerals for quite some time, says Ben Emons

Market Dynamics & Geopolitics - US rare earth miners' shares experienced a surge, initially driven by President Trump's tariff threats on China [1] - A strategic misstep occurred in 2002 when US rare earth mining declined due to China's market dumping, leading to current shortages, especially for military equipment [3] - The US currently produces only 1-2% of the rare earths compared to China's 270,000 metric tons annually, lacking capacity for heavy rare earths crucial for military applications [4] - The US lacks a national policy on rare earths, unlike China's centrally run government, exacerbating the situation [5] Supply Chain & Sourcing - Greenland, holding 385 million (38 and a half million) of unexplored heavy rare earth deposits, is being considered as a potential source, involving a compact of free association and infrastructure investment [6] - Estimates suggest it will take 7-10 years to establish a fully operational mine in Greenland, indicating continued reliance on Chinese rare earth minerals [7] - The US National Defense Authorization Act mandates the elimination of Chinese-sourced rare earths from all defense magnets by January 1st, 2027, posing a challenge due to limited alternative sources [7] - The Pentagon's stockpile of rare earths is projected to run out around 2027-2028, highlighting the urgency of securing alternative supplies [8] - While rare earths are abundant globally in countries like Vietnam, Ukraine, and Argentina, extraction remains time-consuming [13] Investment & Financial Opportunities - JP Morgan Chase announced a $15 trillion (1500 billion) plan, including up to $10 billion for critical mineral investments, signaling a commercial opportunity in addition to national security support [1, 10] - JP Morgan's investment is viewed as a private initiative seeking returns, potentially focusing on lighter earth minerals for the EV and auto sectors, but may not address the military's heavy rare earth shortfall [11, 12]