US-China trade: Why you shouldn't expect progress for 'months to come'

Geopolitical & Trade Tensions - China imposed sanctions on five US subsidiaries of a South Korean shipping company, coinciding with the US collecting fees from Chinese ships under Section 301, escalating trade war tensions [1] - The US administration has camps with differing views on negotiations with China, one believing negotiations are still possible, the other seeing China as unwilling to negotiate [14] - China uses trade measures to "save face" and demonstrate its power, often countering US actions [7][8] - Markets are sensitive to trade developments, swinging between optimism and crisis perception based on news [20] - Tit-for-tat measures are unproductive; the US should focus on building domestic capabilities to reduce vulnerability [23] Trade Policy & Negotiations - China has been expanding export controls on critical minerals and strategic materials since last summer, despite past negotiations [4][5] - Neither the US nor China is interested in long-term progress on trade, with China reminding the world of its presence and interests [9][21] - The US administration is not interested in backing off, but may moderate its stance in the end, leading to a "cold trade" situation [22] Supply Chain & Domestic Capabilities - China has export restrictions on battery materials, lithium-ion battery technologies, industrial diamonds, shipping, critical minerals, and alloys [15] - The US government has been slow to build domestic capabilities despite knowing about China's control over supply chains for over 10 years [16] - The US is making progress in developing scaled magnet technology, battery investments, and super hard materials, potentially being well on its way in about two and a half years [25]