Economic wildcard is the length of the government shutdown, says Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa

Interest Rate and Monetary Policy - The market is closely watching the 4% level in rates [1] - The Fed is expected to cut rates once or twice this year, with October being largely priced in [7] - Further rate cuts could lead to a terminal Fed funds rate below the Fed's long-run neutral rate, indicating a very accommodative policy [7] Economic Concerns - A government shutdown of the current length is concerning and could impact the economy [4] - The impact of the shutdown on GDP is estimated to be between 0.1% to 0.2% per week [5] Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Investors are seeking safe haven assets like treasuries due to concerns about the broader macroeconomic backdrop [3] - There is over 7 trillion in money market fund instruments, indicating a large amount of cash on the sidelines [8] - Investors are allocating to bonds and global equities, with gold being one of many avenues for investment [9] - Money market fund AUMs have been increasing even as equities reach all-time highs, contrary to expectations of money flowing from money markets to equities after the Fed stops hiking rates [11][12]