X @Ansem

Portfolio Performance - Initial capital was $90 thousand, with the current value at approximately $34 million [2] - Experienced a maximum drawdown of 52%, from $65 million to $32 million [2] Market Analysis & Strategy - The four-year cycles appear to be nearing a top, potentially leading to multi-cycle participants selling their holdings [3][4] - A new buyer is needed to sustain the four-year cycle, but the support at current price ranges is unclear, especially with mNAVs losing premiums [4] - The longer-term macro backdrop remains bullish due to the cutting cycle and Gold catch-up trade, although the timeframe may be extended due to significant open interest (OI) wipeout [5] - A deleveraging event of similar magnitude was observed on April 14th, 2024, just before the halving [6] - The firm is shifting trading style from swing to chop, reducing leverage to less than 2x portfolio, and targeting extremities with tight stop losses (SLs) and take profits (TPs) [7] HYPE Long Position - The firm still favors the HYPE story and its current valuation, despite challenges from a 50% drop in OI and increased competition from other perpetual DEXs [7][8] - The firm paid $620 thousand in funding fees and experienced 7-figure losses on HYPE longs [11] - The firm does not see a hard reason to close HYPE longs yet, but will be decreasing the size of the long position [11] Potential Catalysts - More institutions recognizing the HYPE story [9] - Launch of killer-app from the HYPE community [9] - Team token unlock surprise [9] - S2 points season [10]