Fed's Waller on AI: Must let the disruption occur, trust long-run benefits will exceed costs

AI and the Federal Reserve - The Fed is dedicating significant attention to AI, with approximately 25% to 33% of Fed communications addressing the topic [2] - A Fed governor suggests policymakers should allow AI disruption, trusting long-term benefits will outweigh costs, similar to historical technology trends [2] - History indicates new technology fosters growth and employment, with capital and labor acting as complements [3] - The challenge for policymakers is to facilitate worker and firm adaptation, ensuring efficiency gains translate to higher wages and growth [3] AI's Impact on Labor and Productivity - AI-related job losses are currently managed through attrition and retraining, but layoffs are expected to increase, particularly for college-educated workers [5] - AI presents potential threats including fraud, disinformation, bias, and cybersecurity [6] - The Fed anticipates AI could deliver greater productivity, potentially allowing the Fed to operate at a lower rate [6] Regulatory Approaches and Investment - A Fed governor suggests the US approach of allowing technology to develop before regulating is superior to Europe's preemptive regulation [7] - The US approach is credited for the US leading Europe in the 1990s technological boom [7] - A report indicates AI investment may have peaked in the first half of the year [8] Monetary Policy Implications - One Fed governor suggests the neutral rate could be higher due to capital investment from AI [8] - The potential influence of AI on monetary policy, particularly regarding long-run rate outlook changes due to investment and productivity booms, remains a key consideration [9][10]