Friday sell-off a wakeup call to leverage in equity markets, says NewEdge Wealth's Cameron Dawson

Market Volatility and Positioning - A 3% pullback followed an unusually calm climb to all-time highs, with the market trading indecisively within that range [2] - Friday's market activity revealed built-up leverage in areas like Bitcoin and speculative high beta stocks [3] - Overall positioning is at the 74th percentile, suggesting a potential continuation of the positioning chase [3] - The VIX holding above 20 could indicate an overreaction to a short-term move or bracing for something else [6] Earnings and Economic Factors - Strong earnings and rising earnings estimates, coupled with abundant liquidity, support a potential drift higher, though not necessarily in a straight line [4][5] - The market's reaction to new headlines hinges on whether they challenge the current earnings consensus [7] - The rule of thumb is that if the 12-month forward earning estimate continues to make new highs, the S&P 500 will likely follow [8] Sector Performance and Market Leadership - A K-shaped dynamic exists within the equity market, with AI names and banks driving earnings revisions higher [9][10] - Small caps have risen 45% since liberation day, but earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been cut by 10%, indicating a rally not based on fundamentals [11] - The appetite for risk in junk bonds and high beta stocks suggests abundant liquidity, and a fade in these areas could usher in a new leadership phase [12] - Quality is expected to win out over the long-term cycle, with low-quality rallies typically reversing [12] AI and Future Growth - The market may be concerned about the slowing capex growth rate in 2026 and its impact on extrapolating huge earnings growth for AI players [15][16] - The question is whether the market will care about the slowing second derivative of capex growth and reassess the trajectory of earnings growth for these players [16]