Hyperscaker capex growth set to decelerate sharply after peaking in 2025, Barclays says

AI Investment & GDP Impact - Barclay's research indicates AI-related spending boosted US GDP growth by approximately 1 percentage point in the first half of 2025 [1] - The contribution of AI spending to GDP is projected to peak in 2025 and then decline rapidly [2] Capital Expenditure Trends - The five largest hyperscalers are projected to increase capital expenditures by roughly 30% through 2027, reaching $510 billion [2] - This 30% increase represents a major deceleration compared to the 71% jump observed in 2025; the slowdown is even more pronounced when adjusted for inflation [2] Market Overestimation & Productivity - Barclays argues that the market is overestimating the aggregate impact of AI investment, as total US business investment exceeds $4 trillion annually [3] - Achieving a sustained 1 percentage point increase in productivity growth would require a roughly 20% increase in the entire trajectory of business investment [4] - Such sustained spending levels were last observed during the 1990s dot-com boom [4] Key Takeaway - While AI spending levels are impressive, GDP growth is driven by growth rates, which are currently decelerating [4]