J.P. Morgan's Meera Pandit: 2026 catalysts are playing out in market right now

Market Trends & Geopolitics - Trade tensions between the US and China are expected to persist, with potential implications for tariffs and government revenues [2][4] - The market has adapted to ongoing US-China risks, treating them as chronic rather than acute [6] - The US Treasury Secretary estimates the shutdown is costing $15 billion per day [5] AI & Technology - Bullishness surrounds the AI trade, supported by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TSM) results and guidance from Salesforce (CRM) [1] - AI is viewed as a cyclical boom-and-bust cycle, not just a bubble or boom, requiring monitoring of adoption and financing [9] - Innovation cycles in AI may involve circular deals in the early stages to achieve exit velocity [8] - AI spend trajectory is expected to be sustained due to productivity gains, potentially starting as early as Q2 [8] Economic Outlook - Policy risks for the remainder of the year may be to the downside, but stimulative impacts are expected in 2026 from tax refunds and AI-related provisions [7] - Potential economic weakening down the line could impact downstream adopters of AI and change the economics [10][11]