Starbucks CEO says coffee is an affordable luxury. Plus, signs the economy is slowing down

Market Trends & Dynamics - The market is in a "marking time" mindset, awaiting further news regarding China trade [1] - Taiwan Semiconductor's (TSMC) results and guidance were impressive, indicating no AI peak [1] - Major indexes opened in the green, led by the NASDAQ Composite up approximately 0.7%, Dow adding 120 points, and S&P up roughly 0.3% [1] - Optimism surrounds the AI trade, with Nvidia up 1%, Broadcom nearly 2%, and Micron 3.5% [1] - The government shutdown has led to a lack of clarity in government data, with the inflation report due next Friday [1] - Investors are focused on trade relations with China, taking cues from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Besson [1] Economic Outlook - There are signs of a slowing US economy, particularly in the labor market, but strong growth is still observed, with the Atlanta Fed GDP now estimating 3.8% [1] - The US economy appears to be supported by AI capex and high-income consumer spending, while lower-income consumers struggle [1] - The Fed Beige Book indicates a mixed consumer story, with higher-income households splurging on luxury travel, while lower-middle-income families seek discounts [2] - Layoff mentions have jumped to their highest level in a year, while wage pressures remain modest [2] Company Performance & Strategies - Bank earnings have been strong, with Morgan Stanley having a "hell of a quarter" [1] - Starbucks aims to provide an "affordable luxury" experience, focusing on craft, quality, and experience [1] - Analysts are not yet convinced that Starbucks' turnaround efforts will reverse the sales slump in the US, expecting a 0.3% decline in same-store sales growth [2] - DocuSign is launching a series of contract agents and seeing strong growth from its AI-powered intelligent incident management suite, expecting it to be a low double-digit percentage of its entire book of business by Q4 [7][10] - Salesforce's growth expectations hinge on its ability to monetize GenAI and Agentic AI, which some analysts are skeptical of [22] AI & Technology - AI capex is seen as a critical factor holding up the US economy [2] - The AI trade has two components: companies benefiting from the capex infrastructure buildout and those benefiting or being disrupted by the application of the technology itself [3] - There is debate about whether the market is in an AI bubble, with some strategists believing it is priced to perfection [3] - Open AI is a key partner for DocuSign, with much of DocuSign's AI built on Open AI's models [11]