X @Ash Crypto

Market Dynamics & Geopolitics - China is using the U_S_ stock market as a negotiation tactic in trade discussions with the U_S_, leveraging Trump's focus on market performance as a measure of his presidency's success [1] - Uncertainty created by delaying negotiations hurts markets, pressuring Trump to make deals that benefit both the U_S_ and China [1][2] - U_S_ midterm elections in April next year add pressure, as stock market performance influences voter sentiment and impacts Trump's strong economy narrative [2][3] Monetary Policy & Liquidity - The Federal Reserve is hinting at potential rate cuts of 25bps or even 50bps, and signaling the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) [3] - The Treasury Secretary indicates readiness to take actions to stabilize the economy, implying increased liquidity [4] - Increased volatility is expected in the short term, followed by increased liquidity injections into the market [5] Crypto Market Analysis - Crypto assets are reacting to liquidity flows resulting from policy responses, not just tariffs or headlines [5] - Favorable conditions are emerging, including potential rate cuts, the end of QT, softening inflation data, and rising political pressure, similar to conditions preceding major rallies in 2019, 2020, and 2023 [5][6] - Crypto is now a recognized institutional asset class, integrated into the global liquidity narrative, potentially extending the current cycle beyond the typical November/December peak [6][7] - The current market volatility is viewed as a reset before the next phase of the bull market, driven by pressure leading to policy responses, liquidity injections, and subsequent expansion [7][8]