IMF's Srinivasan on Rare Earth Tensions

Economic Outlook & Trade Tensions - US-China trade tensions, including export controls and potential tariffs, pose risks to the economic outlook [1] - Asia Pacific growth is forecasted at 45% this year, decreasing to 41% next year, but is subject to downside risks due to trade tensions [2] - Global economic growth is projected at 31% in the baseline scenario, but could be 03% percentage points lower with greater tariffs and supply chain disruptions [3][4] China's Economic Impact - China's exports to the US have declined sharply since 2017-2018, while exports to the rest of Asia, especially ASEAN, have increased [6][7] - Deflationary pressures in China are leading to lower export prices, impacting countries around it, including ASEAN [8][9] - Weak domestic demand in China exacerbates the issue, suggesting that boosting consumption and fixing the real estate sector could alleviate the spillover effects [9][10] Policy Recommendations for China - China provides approximately 4% of policy support every year for priority sectors, including EVs [11] - The report calls for China to scale back such policies and remove trade and investment restrictions to restructure growth and reduce internal and external imbalances [12]