A proxy for jobless claims data: Here's what to know

Labor Market Analysis - Haver Analytics estimates weekly jobless claims at 217,000 for the week of October 11th, compared to the government's 228,000 [1] - Continuing claims are estimated to be up at 1.942 million versus 1.92 million [2] - The economy is characterized as a relatively low fire, low hire environment, with no significant changes since the government stopped publishing data [4] - Goldman Sachs reports similar jobless claim numbers [5] Financial Market Conditions - Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is at one-month highs, indicating a clamor for high-quality collateral and tightness in the financial market [11][12] - The rise in SOFR is reversing the effect of the Fed's rate cut on September 17th [13] - The fiscal year ended with 1.22 trillion to service the debt [16] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - There's a divergence between jobless claims data and the Fed's concerns about the labor market [8] - The relationship between stocks and treasury yields is influenced by a "flight to good collateral" [9] - The current situation is not comparable to the great credit crisis [10] - Chairman Powell mentioned the possibility of ending quantitative tightening in the coming months due to some tightening in financial markets [17]